北京理工大学珠海学院2020届本科生毕业论文长生生物事件对医药板块股价的影响研究\北京理工大学珠海学院2020届本科生毕业论文长生生物事件对医药板块股价的影响研究摘要近年来，我国医药行业的科学发展与体制改革取得了很大的进步，但与此同时，对社会造成不良影响的医药事件频出，医药板块的股价随即波动。基于医药行业不良事件往往和市场股价呈现出的密切关系，本研究拟通过“长生生物疫苗造假事件”，探讨该不良医药事件对我国医药板块的股票价格与收益率产生的具体影响。本研究主要采用事件分析法，分析“长生生物疫苗造假事件”发生前后A股医药板块股价的变化情况及二者的相关关系。在定量研究基础上，结合比较分析法，通过建立市场模型得出结果，深入分析医药板块股票价格的平均异常收益率与累计平均异常收益率，以此检验该研究事件是否对医药板块的股价变化产生了显著性影响，以及变化的方向性。实证结果表明，该事件对医药板块的股价有显著的负面影响，且具有滞后性。研究结果对投资者分析重大事件后的股价变化具有重要参考价值，能够为投资者进行理性投资提供理论基础和决策依据。关键词：事件分析法；股价变动；平均异常收益率；累计平均异常收益；显著性检验北京理工大学珠海学院2020届本科生毕业论文ResearchontheSharepriceofthePharmaceuticalSectorbytheInfluenceofChangshengBiologicalEventAbstractInlastfewyears,thescientificdevelopmentandstructuralreformofChinesepharmaceuticalindustryhavemadegreatprogresses.However,2018wasaspecialyearforChinesepharmaceuticalindustry,itwascalledtheChinesemedicalpolicyyearbythemedia.Inthesametime,lotsofmajormedicalincidentsbrokeoutwhichledmanynegativeimpactsforallsociety.Thesharepricesofthepharmaceuticalsectorwereaffectedcorrespondingly.Basedontheadverseeventsofthepharmaceuticalindustryoftenshowedacorrelativityrelationshipwiththemarketshareprices,thisstudyintendedtoexplorethedetailedimpactsofadversemedicaleventsonthesharepricesandyieldofChinesepharmaceuticalsectorthroughthe"Changshengbiologicalvaccinefraud".Eventanalysiswasusedinthisstudy,theAshareschangesofthepharmaceuticalsectorwasanalyzedbeforeandafterthe"Changshengbiologicalvaccinefraud",thecorrelationshipwasalsostudied.Onthebasisofquantitativeresearchcombinedwithcomparativeanalysis,theresultswereobtainedbyestablishingthemarketmathematicalmodel.Theaverageabnormalreturnrateandthecumulativeaverageabnormalreturnrateofthemedicinesectorsharepricewereanalyzed,inordertotestwhethertheresearcheventhadasignificantimpactonthesharepricechangesalongwiththedirectionofthechangesinthepharmaceuticalsector.Resultsshowthattheincidenthadasignificantnegativeimpactonthesharepriceofthepharmaceuticalsector,andithadhysteresis.Theresultshaveimportantreferencevaluesforinvestorstoanalyzethechangesofsharepriceaftermedicalincidentsbrokeout.Itcanprovidetheoreticalanddecisionbasesforinvestorstomakerationalinvestment.Keywords:EventStudy;StockPriceFluctuations;AverageAbnormalReturn;CumulativeAverageAbnormalReturn;SignificanceTest北京理工大学珠海学院2020届本科生毕业论文目录............................................................1..................................................1..................................................1..................................................2..............................................2..............................................3..............................................5..................................................5..................................................9............................................9........................................
