金融化对油价形成的影响-金融危机中原油价格形成及趋势分析VIP专享VIP免费

金融化对油价形成的影响马瑾1Influence on Crude Oil Pricing by Financial Commodity MarketsJin Ma【摘要】：通过对原油实际供求、经济实际运行和未来发展预期、美元汇率以及期货市场资金量等四个影响油价的因素进行理论和实证分析，发现在 2003 年到 2008 年，影响纽约商品交易所的 WTI 原油价格涨跌的基础因素依然是原油市场的真实供求状况，2006 年以来，汇率和对未来经济的预期对原油价格形成的影响力显著增加。在短期内，原油价格将维持总体下降的态势；中期里，油价将重新回到由供求确定价格的基本面上；长期里，如果国际原油交易的计价和结算工具发生改变，原油的名义价格就要受到新计价工具的制约和影响。【关键词】：原油价格；供求因素；汇率；原油期货。[JEl] G13 [文献标识码] A 【Abstract】: By a theoretic and statistic analyze on the relationship between crude oil supply and demand, fact and anticipate of macro-economy, exchange rate of US dollar, fund mount in futures market with oil pricing, since Jan 2003 to Oct 2008, we find the status of supply and demand in spot markets is the important influence factor for Sweet oil price at NYMXE. But form 2006, the influence force of expectation for macro-economy and exchange rate is being increased. So the oil price would still reduce in short-term future, and would be fixed on the basic circs in spot markets at middle-term future. In future, oil normal price would be shaped according with new settlement money, if the US dollar is no more as the cleaning and settling tool for international oil trade. 【Key Words】：Oil Price; the Factor of Demand and Supplement; Exchange rate; Crude oil Futures；作者简介：马瑾，大连商品交易所博士后，研究方向：原油期货品种开发，邮编：116023；电话：0411—84808531、15998517233；邮箱：majin@dce.com；通信地址：大连会展路 18 号大连商品交易所品种部。金融化对油价形成的影响1 文中所述观点仅代表作者本人意见，与所在单位无关。一、导言从 2003 年开始，在全球经济进入发展繁荣...