Martin Jacques: Understanding the rise of China The world is changing with really remarkable speed. If you look at the chart at the top here, you’ll see that in 2025 these Goldman Sachs projections suggest that the Chinese economy will be almost the same size as the American economy. And if you look at the chart for 2050, it’s projected that the Chinese economy will be twice the size of the American economy, and the Indian economy will be almost the same size as the American economy. We should bear in mind here these projections were drawn up before the Western financial crises. 世界正在 以惊人的速度飞快得改变着。如果你看着这上方的图表,你会看到在2025 年， 高盛投资公司的这些预测 表明中国经济规模 会和美国经济几乎相当。如果看 2050 年的图表， 预测表明中国经济规模 将会是美国经济的两倍， 印度的经济规模将会和 美国的经济几乎持平。 在这里，我们应该记住这些预测是在西方经济危机之前做出的。 A couple of weeks ago, I was looking at the latest projection by BNP (Banque Nationale de Paris) PARIBAS for when China will have a larger economy than the United States. Goldman Sachs projected 2027. The post-crisis projection is 2010. That’s just a decade way. 几周前， 我查看法国巴黎银行的 最近预测， 中国在什么时候 会超越美国经济， 成为第一大经济体。 高盛投资公司预测 2027 年。 危机过后的预测 是 2020 年。 这也不过只有 10 年的光景。 China is going to change the world in two fundamental respects. First of all, it's a huge developing country with a population of 1.3 billion people, which has been growing for over 30 years at around 10% a year. And within a decade it will have the largest economy in the world. Never before in the modern era has the largest economy in the world been that of a developing country, rather than a developed countr...
