人口年龄结构变动对经济增长影响的实证研究——以广东省为例【摘要】目的：本文分析广东省 1990-2018 年之间可得的人口数据变化，研讨不同年龄的变化对广东省经济增长的影响。方法：本文以文献分析法、纵向比较法和模型分析法对 1990-2018 年之间可得的相关数据进行考察，并且利用柯布-道格拉斯生产函数，引入少年人口比重、劳动年龄人口比重、老年人口比重和总抚养比变量进行实证分析。结果：总抚养比的回归系数为-3.185、少年人口比重的回归系数为-6.64、老年人口比重的回归系数为 0.322、劳动人口比重的回归系数为 5.891。结论：少年人口比重与经济增长呈负相关关系，劳动人口比重则与经济增长呈正相关关系，老年人口比重与经济增长关系不显著，总抚养比与经济增长呈负相关关系。建议：广东省应该大力发展银发产业，发展老年劳动力、注重开发老龄人才，保障儿童、老人健康安全来减轻抚养负担，加快粤港澳大湾区的发展，促进广东省经济增长。【关键词】人口年龄结构；少年人口比重；老年人口比重；柯布-道格拉斯生产函数 An empirical study on the influence of population age structure change on economic growth——Taking Guangdong Province As An Example[Abstract] Objective: this paper analyzes the changes of population data available in Guangdong province from 1990 to 2018, and studies the influence of the changes of different ages on the economic growth of Guangdong province. Methods: this paper used literature analysis, longitudinal comparison and model analysis to investigate the relevant data available from 1990 to 2018, and introduced the variables of juvenile population proportion,working-age population proportion, aged population proportion and total dependency ratio by using the Cobb-Douglas production function for empirical analysis. Results: the regression coefficient of the total dependency ratio was -3.185, the regression coefficient of the proportion of the juvenile population was -6.64, the regression coefficient of the proportion of the elderly population was 0.322, and the regression...
