我国外汇储备的规模适度性分析摘要外汇储备能够用来调节国际收支、干预外汇市场，对于任何一个国家都是必不可少的。持有外汇储备能够带来收益，但也是有成本的，一国应保持合适的外汇储备量。目前，我国的外汇储备是超额的，巨额的外汇储备主要由常常项目顺差、资本和金融项目顺差以及大量的外商直接投资造成。通过比例分析法分析表明，我国的外汇储备规模在近十年来一直是超额的，而在此之前则是一个由不足逐渐走向适度的过程。通过用修正的阿格沃尔模型进行分析，算出了我国历年合理的外汇储备规模的范围，得出了近年来我国外汇储备超额的额度。转变经济增长方式、改变结售汇制度，加强黄金储备、物资储备是保持我国适度外汇储备规模的重要举措。关键词：外汇储备；比例分析法；阿格沃尔模型；适度规模；The moderate scale analysis of China’s foreign exchange reservesAbstractForeign exchange reserves can be used to adjust the balance of international payments, to intervention the foreign exchange market and are essential for any country. Holding foreign exchange reserves can bring some benefits and cost to us, therefore, the state should maintain an appropriate foreign exchange reserves. At present, China's foreign exchange reserves are excess, and it is caused by the surplus of Current-account, the surplus of capital and financial account and the inflows of large foreign direct investment. The traditional analysis of foreign exchange reserves are ratio analysis methods and the Agarwal model, By ratio analysis we can know that our foreign exchange reserves are excess in the past decade, and before that, it experience a period from less to moderate scale. By using the modified Agarwal model to do an analysis, I calculate a reasonable range of the size of China's foreign exchange reserves in the previous years and come to a conclusion that our foreign exchange reserves are excess in recent years and I can know the specific excess data. Based ...
