目录中文摘要.....................................................1ABSTRACT....................................................21.绪论.......................................................31.1研究背景和意义.........................................31.2本文研究方法和框架.....................................32.羊群效应概述...............................................52.1羊群效应定义..........................................52.2羊群效应的影响........................................52.2.1消极影响.........................................52.2.2积极影响.........................................63.羊群效应的实证模型选取.....................................74.对上证50和创业板羊群效应的实证分析........................84.1数据来源及处理........................................84.1.1数据来源.........................................84.1.2数据处理.........................................84.2上证50和创业板整体羊群效应实证检验...................84.2.1上证50和创业板CSADt和Rm,t的散点图...................84.2.2数据平稳性检验..................................104.2.3数据的自相关性检验..............................114.2.4数据的异方差的检验..............................144.3上涨、下跌以及盘整阶段的羊群效应实证检验..............184.4羊群效应的实证结果....................................215.羊群效应的成因分析........................................225.1主观原因..............................................225.1.1投资者的理性是有限的............................225.1.2市场存在投机行为................................225.2客观原因................................................225.2.1政府部门监管滞后................................225.2.2照搬照抄国外制度................................236.针对羊群效应的建议........................................246.1对投资者的建议.......................................246.2对监管部门的建议......................................246.2.1做好预防工作.......................................246.2.2减少直接干预.......................................24参考文献....................................................25致谢........................................................27中文摘要羊群效应在心理学上表现为从众心理,指人们放弃自己的意见,转变原有的态度,采取与大多数人一致的行为。近些年来,我国股市多次出现较大的波动,既有我们所谓的“疯牛”出现,又有我们所谓的“股灾”发生,市场行情的大幅波动使股票难以反映其真实价值,不仅不利于投资者进行正确决策,也不利于上市公司的长足发展以及我国金融市场的平稳运行。所以极其有必要对我国股市进行羊群效应的相关研究。本文探讨的是我国上证50与创业板的羊群效应。检验结果显示,我国上证50和创业板均存在羊群效应,并且下跌阶段的羊群效应均明显强于上涨阶段,同时无论上涨阶段还是下跌阶段,创业板的羊群效应均强于上证50。为了减轻羊群效应带来的冲击,投资者应该学会提升自身金融素养,理性投资,同时政府监管部门要加强监管,坚决打击证券市场的违法犯罪行为,为投资者创建一个公平,公开,竞争有序的现代金融市场。关键字:羊群效应CCK模型CSAD(横截面绝对偏离度)ABSTRACTTheherdeffectismanifestedinthepsychologyofthecrowd,whichmeansthatpeoplewillnotthinkaboutthevalueandsignificanceofthematterthemselves,buttopursuethewayofmassidentity.Inthefinancialfield,wheninvestorsaremakingdecisions,theywillabandontheinformationtheyalreadyhave,buttochooseablindinvestmentbehaviorbasedonmarketsentiment.Inrecentyears,China'sstockmarkethasbigvolatility,whichwecall"madcow",andtheso-called"crash",thestockma...