上市公司财务预警系统研究——以济南轻骑摩托车股份有限公司为例[摘要]随着我国经济的市场化程度越来越高，企业拥有更多机遇的同时，也使得企业在经营中面临的不确定性和风险因素日益增多。这时企业风险管理的重要性就日益凸现出来，因为风险管理可以让企业管理者和经营者及早发现财务危机，并在危机萌芽时采取有效措施，制止或使财务风险降到最低，这对于企业的生存与发展具有非常重要的意义。本文从财务风险含义及表现形式、财务预警的含义及特点等相关概念的界定入手，首先介绍了财务预警系统的功能、模型以及建立财务预警系统的重要性和必要性；接着设计了财务预警系统指标体系；其次以济南轻骑摩托车股份有限公司为例，利用设计的财务预警系统指标体系分析了济南轻骑摩托车股份有限公司近三年的财务数据，找出其在经营中存在的问题，并针对存在的问题提出对策及财务预警机制。[关键词]财务风险；财务预警；财务风险管理Discussionoffinancialearly-warningsystemoflistedcompany——takethePMTCmotorcycleCo.,LTDasanexampleAbstract:Alongwithourcountryeconomythedegreeofmarketizationmoreandmorehigh,enterprisewithmoreopportunitiesatthesametime,alsomakestheenterpriseintheoperationofthefaceuncertaintyandriskfactorsareincreasing.Atthismomenttheimportanceofenterpriseriskmanagementistheprotrudingout,becausetheriskmanagementcanmakemanagersandoperatorsofearlydetectionfinancialcrisis,andinthegerminationofthecrisistotakeeffectivemeasurestostopormakefinancialrisktotheminimum,thistothesurvivalanddevelopmentofenterpriseshastheextremelyvitalsignificance.Thispaper,fromthefinancialriskmeaningandform,financialwarningthemeaningandcharacteristicoftherelatedconceptdefinitionoffirstintroducedthefinancialaffairswarningsystemfunction,models,andestablishthefinancialwarningsystemthenecessityandimportance;Thenthefinancialaffairswarningsystemdesignindexsystem;SecondtakePMTCmotorcycleCo.,LTDasanexample,theuseofthefinancialaffairswarningsystemdesignindexsystemwasanalyzedthePMTCmotorcycleCo.,LTDinthepastthreeyears,thefinancialdataandfindouttheintheoperationoftheexistingproblems,andputsforwardcountermeasurestosolvetheexistingproblemsandthefinancialaffairswarningmechanism.Keywords:FinancialriskFinancialwarningFinancialriskmanagement目录一、财务风险和财务预警的相关概念........................................................................................1（一）财务风险的含义及表现形式...........................................................................................1（二）财务预警的概念和特点...................................................................................................1二、上市公司实证研究——以济南轻骑为例...............................................................................1（一）济南轻骑基本情况...........................................................................................................1（二）济南轻骑财务指标进行计算分析...................................................................................21.偿债能力指标.......................................................................................................................22.盈利能力指标.......................................................................................................................43.资产运营能力指标..............................................................................................................64.发展能力指标........................................................................................................................
