基于现金流量的企业财务预警系统研究摘要随着经济的发展以及金融危机的影响,企业面临的危险越来越多,陷入财务困境的情况也屡见不鲜。因此,如何在复杂多变的市场环境下立于不败之地,考虑潜在风险就显得尤为重要,建立一整套基于现金流量的企业财务预警系统必须纳入企业发展规划日程。这是参与市场竞争的客观要求,也是企业生存发展的必要保障。但是从目前来看,我国财务风险预警的发展还很不完善,具体表现为没有形成一套完整的理论体系、财务风险预警模型、财务风险预警的实证分析说服力不强等,针对这些问题本文进行了探讨。本文依据财务管理和风险管理理论,采用定性和定量相结合及实证分析的方法,对财务风险预警进行简单研究,旨在说明建立有效的财务风险预警系统预测模型的步骤和方法,并通过实证分析对其实用性和有效性进行验证,从而使财务风险预警在我国得到更好的发展和广泛的应用。关键词:现金,现金流量,财务危机,财务预警系统CorporateFinanceEarlyWarningSystemBasedOnCashFlowABSTRACTWitheconomicdevelopmentandtheimpactoffinancialcrisis,thedevelopmentofenterprisesisfacingmoreandmorerisk,Losinginfinancialdistresshavebecomeordinary.Howtowinainvinciblepositioninthecomplexandvolatilemarketenvironment,consideringthepotentialriskisparticularlyimportant.Establishasetofcorporatefinancialearlywarningsystembasedoncashflowmustbeincludedintheenterprisedevelopmentplanningagendaandistheobjectiverequirementstoparticipateinmarketcompetition,butalsoisnecessaryfortheprotectionoftheenterprisesurvivalanddevelopment.Visiblewarningoffinancialrisksplaysanimportantroleinthedevelopmentofenterprises.Butfornow,thedevelopmentoffinancialriskearlywarningisfarfromperfect,specificperformancedidnotformacompletetheoreticalsystem,thefinancialriskearlywarningmodel.EmpiricalAnalysisofthefinancialriskwarningisnotconvincingenoughtoaddresstheseissuesthatwerebefurtherexplored.Accordingtothetheoryoffinancialmanagementandriskmanagement,thecombinationofempiricalanalysisusingqualitativeandquantitativein-depthstudyoffinancialriskearlywarningisdesignedtobuildaneffectivefinancialriskearlywarningsystem,andverifiedthroughempiricalanalysisofitspracticalityandeffectiveness,sothatthefinancialriskearlywarninggetsbetterdevelopmentandwideapplicationinChina.KEYWORDS:Cash,Cashflow,Thefinancialcrisis,Financialearlywarningsystem目录摘要......................................................................IABSTRACT...............................................................II引言......................................................................11财务预警理论研究........................................................21.1.1国外学者的观点...............................................21.1.2国内学者的观点...............................................21.2财务预警的理论依据.................................................31.2.1财务危机产生的原因...........................................31.2.2财务预警理论.................................................32现金流量理论研究........................................................52.1现金的定义.........................................................52.2现金流量定义.......................................................52.3现金流量的特征.....................................................53企业财务预警体系的建立...................................................73.1模型建立方法.......................................................73.1.1单变量分析法(UnivariateAnalysis).............................73.1.2多变量分析法(MultipleDiscrimi...