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计量经济学(CPI研究)VIP免费

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计量经济学课程论文——消费者价格指数(CPI)相关因素的实证研究2011年5月AbstractAbstract:TheoverheatingofChineseeconomystartingfrom2007isactuallyaforewarningofinflation.While2008hadseentheglobalfinancialcrisis,chinaseemstostandonthefeetduringthisrecession,keepinguptherapidgrowth.However,afterthecrisis,especiallyaftercarryingoutthe“4000billion”investmentpolicyinJune,2009,thegovernmenthadtoacceptthetruththatchinawasfacingaseverepressureofinflation.From2010,theinflationwasbecomingmoreandmoreserious,attractingmoreandmoreattention,andthegovernmentalsobegantoconcentrateoncontrollingthedomesticinflation.However,thereisnotaunanimousopinionaboutthereasonsthatcausedinflation.Sincetheunderstandingoffactorsresultingintheinflationplaysasignificantroleinestablishingaproperpolicyaimedatsuppressinginflation,itisverynecessarytoconductanempiricalstudyonvariedfactorscontributingtoinflation.Byapplyingthemethodsofeconometrics,thisarticleanalyzedthreefactors:moneysupply,thecreditquotaandthepriceofrawmaterial.Fromtheresultofempiricalstudy,wefoundoutthatthemainfactorscausinginflationaretheunbalancingincreaseinmoneysupply.Besides,theblindexpansionofcreditquotahasledtoamplificationinthemoneymultiplier,alsoaccountingfortheinflation.What’smore,theincreaseincommodityprice,especiallyinagricultureproducts,isanimportantfactorofinflation.Keyword:CPIMoneySupplyCreditQuotaCorporateGoodsPriceIndexEconometricModelStructuralForm目录Abstract....................................................................................................................................2【引言】..................................................................................................................................4一.问题的提出...............................................................................................................4二.模型设定与数据处理...............................................................................................5(一)理论依据..................................................................................................................5(二)模型设定..................................................................................................................6(三)数据收集..................................................................................................................7三.模型的估计与调整...................................................................................................8(一)CPI对货币供应量的回归.........................................................................................8(二)CPI对信贷规模的回归...........................................................................................11(三)CPI对农产品价格指数、矿产品价格指数、煤油电价格指数的回归................12四.本文的结论及政策建议.........................................................................................14【参考文献】........................................................................................................................15【引言】基于基本的经济理论和计量经济学知识,本文将分别用CPI对货币供给量、信贷规模和企业主要原材料价格这三个因素进行回归分析,进而分析得出结论。一.问题的提出中国自改革开放以来,经济建设取得了举目的成就:获得经济高速增长,综合国力显著提高。2007年国内生产总值已达249530亿元,按可比价格计算,比1978年增长了14.9倍,29年...

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计量经济学(CPI研究)

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