计量经济学(CPI研究)VIP免费

计量经济学课程论文——消费者价格指数（CPI）相关因素的实证研究2011年5月AbstractAbstract:TheoverheatingofChineseeconomystartingfrom2007isactuallyaforewarningofinflation.While2008hadseentheglobalfinancialcrisis,chinaseemstostandonthefeetduringthisrecession,keepinguptherapidgrowth.However,afterthecrisis,especiallyaftercarryingoutthe“4000billion”investmentpolicyinJune,2009,thegovernmenthadtoacceptthetruththatchinawasfacingaseverepressureofinflation.From2010,theinflationwasbecomingmoreandmoreserious,attractingmoreandmoreattention,andthegovernmentalsobegantoconcentrateoncontrollingthedomesticinflation.However,thereisnotaunanimousopinionaboutthereasonsthatcausedinflation.Sincetheunderstandingoffactorsresultingintheinflationplaysasignificantroleinestablishingaproperpolicyaimedatsuppressinginflation,itisverynecessarytoconductanempiricalstudyonvariedfactorscontributingtoinflation.Byapplyingthemethodsofeconometrics,thisarticleanalyzedthreefactors:moneysupply,thecreditquotaandthepriceofrawmaterial.Fromtheresultofempiricalstudy,wefoundoutthatthemainfactorscausinginflationaretheunbalancingincreaseinmoneysupply.Besides,theblindexpansionofcreditquotahasledtoamplificationinthemoneymultiplier,alsoaccountingfortheinflation.What’smore,theincreaseincommodityprice,especiallyinagricultureproducts,isanimportantfactorofinflation.Keyword:CPIMoneySupplyCreditQuotaCorporateGoodsPriceIndexEconometricModelStructuralForm目录Abstract....................................................................................................................................2【引言】..................................................................................................................................4一．问题的提出...............................................................................................................4二．模型设定与数据处理...............................................................................................5（一）理论依据..................................................................................................................5（二）模型设定..................................................................................................................6（三）数据收集..................................................................................................................7三．模型的估计与调整...................................................................................................8（一）CPI对货币供应量的回归.........................................................................................8（二）CPI对信贷规模的回归...........................................................................................11（三）CPI对农产品价格指数、矿产品价格指数、煤油电价格指数的回归................12四．本文的结论及政策建议.........................................................................................14【参考文献】........................................................................................................................15【引言】基于基本的经济理论和计量经济学知识，本文将分别用CPI对货币供给量、信贷规模和企业主要原材料价格这三个因素进行回归分析，进而分析得出结论。一．问题的提出中国自改革开放以来，经济建设取得了举目的成就：获得经济高速增长，综合国力显著提高。2007年国内生产总值已达249530亿元，按可比价格计算，比1978年增长了14.9倍，29年...