电力系统负荷预测及方法外文翻译VIP免费

PowersystemloadforecastingmethodsandcharacteristicsofAbstract：Theloadforecastinginpowersystemplanningandoperationplayanimportantrole，withobviouseconomicbenefits，inessence,theelectricityloadforecastingmarketdemandforecast。Inthispaper,asystematicdescriptionandanalysisofavarietyofloadforecastingmethodsandcharacteristicsandthatgoodloadforecastingforpowersystemhasbecomeanimportantmeansofmodernmanagement.Keywords:powersystemloadforecastingelectricitymarketconstructionPlanning1.IntroductionLoadforecastingdemandforelectricityfromaknownstartingtoconsiderthepolitical,economic,climateandotherrelatedfactors,thefuturedemandforelectricitytomakepredictions.Loadforecastincludestwoaspects:onthefuturedemand（power）projectionsandfutureelectricityconsumption（energy）forecast。Electricitydemandprojectionsdecisiongeneration，transmissionanddistributionsystem，thesicofnewCapacity;powergeneratingequipmentdeterminethetypeofprediction(。suchaspeakingunits,baseloadunits，etc}。Loadforecastingpurposesistoprovideloadconditionsandthelevelofdevelopment,whileidentifyingthevarioussupplyareas,eachyearplanningforthepowerconsumptionformaximumpowerloadandtheloadofplanningtheoveralllevelofdevelopmentofeachplanyeartodeterminetheloadcomposition。2。loadforecastingmethodsandcharacteristicsof2。1UnitConsumptionActOutputofproductsinaccordancewithnationalarrangements,planningandelectricityintensityvaluetodetermineelectricitydemand。Sub-UnitConsumptionAct；ProductUnitConsumption;andthevalueofUnitConsumptionAct;two.Theprojectionofloadbeforethekeyistodeterminetheappropriatevalueoftheproductunitconsumptionorunitconsumption.JudgingfromChina’sactualsituation，thegeneralruleistheproductunitconsumptionincreasedyearbyyear,theoutputvalueunitconsumptionisdeclining。Unitconsumptionmethodadvantagesarc：Themethodissimple，short-tornloadforecastingeffective.Disadvantagesarc:needtodoalotofpainstakingresearchwork,moregeneral,itisdifficulttoreflectmoderneconomic,politicalandclimateconditions.2.2TrendextrapolationWhenthepowerloadinaccordancewithtime-varyingpresentsamekindofupwardordownwardtrend,andnoobviousseasonalfluctuations，butalsotofindasuitablefunctioncurvetoreflectthischangeintrend，youcanusethetimetasindependentvariables,timingvalueofyforthedependentvariabletoestablishthetrendmodely=f(t).Whenthereasontobelievethatthistrendwillextendtothefuture,weassignedthevalueofthevariabletneedto，youcangetthecorrespondingtuneseriesofthefuturevalueofthemoment.Thisisthetrendextrapolation。Applicationofthetrendextrapolationmethodhastwoassumptions:（1)assumingthereisnostepChangeinload;(2）assumethatthedevelopmentofloadfactorsalsodeterminethefuturedevelopmentofloadanditsconditionisunchangedorchangedlittle。Selecttheappropriatetrendmodelistheapplicationofthetrendextrapolationanimportantpartofpatternrecognitionmethodandfinitedifferencemethodistoselectthetrendmodelarctwobasicways.Alineartrendextrapolationforecastingmethod，thelogarithmictrendforecastingmethod,quadraticcurvetrendforecastingmethod,exponentialcurvetrendforecastingmethod，growthcurveofthetrendpredictionmethod.Trendextrapolationmethod’sadvantagesarc：onlyneedtohistoricaldata,theamountofdatarequiredforless.Thedisadvantageisthat:Ifachangeinloadwillcauselargeerrors.2。3ElasticCoefficientMethodElasticitycoefficientistheaveragegrowthrateofelectricityconsumptiontoGDPratioofbetween...