基于四阶段法的城市轨道交通客流预测模型研究摘要关键词：轨道交通客流预测通过预测线路断面流量、换乘流量、车站出入口流量为规划线网方案的评价、轨道建设提供重要的量化指标，其对于轨道交通项目的科学决策具有重要的意义。i本文主要内容如下：（1）阐述国内外轨道交通预测研究现状和发展趋势，研究背景和研究意义；（2）介绍传统四阶段法基本原理和方法，并指出传统四阶段法存在的不足，并提出了改进方法；（3）针对传统四阶段法的不足进行了改进，按出行目的和小区区位建立改进的四阶段法轨道交通预测模型；（4）以某轨道交通网络为研究对象，运用改进的四阶段法进行客流预测。关键词：四阶段法；轨道交通；客流预测；交通分布模型；交通生成模型iiABSTRACTPassengerVolumeForecastbypredictingtheflowlinesections,transfertrafficflowevaluationstationentrances,raillinenetworkconstructionplanningprogramsprovideimportantquantitativeindicatorsashavingimportantimplicationsforscientificdecision-makingrailtransportationprojects.Themaincontentsareasfollows:(1)domesticandinternationalrailtrafficforecastingstudydescribesthecurrentsituationanddevelopmenttrendoftheresearchbackgroundandsignificance;(2)describesthetraditionalfour-stagemethodofbasicprinciplesandmethods,andtopointouttheshortcomingsofthetraditionalfour-stagemethod,andproposesanimprovedmethod;(3)fortheshortcomingsoftraditionalfour-stagemethodhasbeenimproved,theestablishmentofanimprovedmethodofrailtrafficforecastingmodelfour-cellstagebytrippurposeandlocation;(4)toarailnetworkforthestudy,carriedoutusingtheimprovedpassengerflowforecastfour-stagemethod.KEYWORDS:fourstagemethod;railtransit;passengerflowforecast;trafficdistributionmodel;trafficgenerationmodeliii目录摘要........................................................................................................................iABSTRACT.............................................................................................................ii目录......................................................................................................................iii1绪论........................................................................................................................51.1研究的背景及意义....................................................................................51.1.1研究背景........................................................................................51.1.2研究意义........................................................................................51.2国内外研究现状........................................................................................51.2.1国外研究现状................................................................................51.2.2国内研究现状................................................................................61.3论文研究的主要内容................................................................................62基于四阶段法轨道交通客流量预测研究............................................................72.1交通发生和吸引模型...............................................................................72.2交通分布模型...........................................................................................82.3交通方式划分模型...................................................................................92.4交通分配模型.........................................................................................102.5四阶段法的缺点和改进........
