ModelTestOneModelTest1PartIWriting(30minutes)Directions:Forthispartyouareallowed30minutestowriteashortessayentitledShouldSmokingBeBannedinPublicPlaces?Youshouldwriteatleast120wordsfollowingtheoutlinegivenbelow.1.近年来越来越多的公共场所禁烟2.这项举措在受到拥护的同时也引发了争议3.你的看法ShouldSmokingBeBannedinPublicPlaces?—————————————————————————————————————PartIIReadingComprehensive(SkimmingandScanning)(15minutes)Low-carbonFuture:WeCanAffordtoGoGreenTacklingclimatechangewillcostconsumerstheearth.Thosewhocampaignforagreenrevolutionareouttodestroyourwesternlifestyles.Sucharethecriesofopponentsofemissionscuts,andtheirmessagehaspoliticalimpact:anumberofsurveyshavefoundthattheenthusiasmofvotersforpoliciestoreduceclimatechangefallsoffasthepricetagincreases.However,anewmodeling(模型化)exercisesuggeststhatthesefearsarelargelyunfounded.ItprojectsthatradicalcutstotheUK’semissionswillcausebarelynoticeableincreasesinthepriceoffood,drinkandmostothergoodsby2050.Electricityandpetrolcostswillrisesignificantly,butwiththerightpoliciesinplace,saythemodellers,thisneednotleadtobigchangeinourlifestyle.“Theseresultsshowthattheglobalprojecttofightclimatechangeisfeasible,”saysAlexBowen,aclimatepolicyexpertattheLondonSchoolofEconomics.“It’snotsuchabigaskaspeoplearemakingout.”Althoughitisimpossibletopreciselypredictpricesfourdecreasefromnow,theexerciseisoneofthemostdetailedexaminationsyetoftheimpactofclimatechangepoliciesonUKconsumers.Itprovidesausefulroughguidetooureconomicfuture.ThoughitsresultsspeakdirectlytotheUKconsumers,previousresearchhascometosimilarconclusionsfortheUS.InJune,onestudyfoundthatiftheUSweretocutemissionsby50percentby2050,pricesofmostconsumergoodswouldincreasebylessthan5percent.ThefindingsarealsoconsistentwithanalysesbythePewCenteronGlobalClimatechangeinWashingtonDC.“Evencuttingemissionsby80percentoverfourdecadeshasaverysmalleffectonconsumersinmostareas,”saysManikRoyofthePewCenter.“Thechallengeisnowtoconvinceconsumersandpolicy-Makersthatthisisthecase.”TheIntergovernmentalpanelonClimateChangerecommendsthatwealthynationscuttheiremissionstobetween80and95percentbelow1990levelsby2050inordertoavoidthe1ModelTestOneworsteffectsofclimatechange.TheUKgovernmentaimstoreduceitscontributionby80percentandleadersoftheotherG8nationshavediscussedfollowingsuit.Tomeetthisgoal,industrieswillhavetoslashfossilfuelconsumption,andlow-carbonpowersourceswillhavetomassivelyexpand.Companieswillhavetopayincreasinglyhigherpricesfortherighttoemitgreenhousegases.Howwillthisaffecttheaveragecitizen'swallet?Tomeasuretheimpactofthe80percenttargetontheUKpopulation,NewScientistapproachedCambridgeEconometrics,afirmknownforitsmodelingoftheEuropeaneconomy.Thefirmusedhistoriceconomicdatatopredicttheimpactofemissionsreductionsonpricesinover40categoriesofgoodsandservices.Itcomparedtheimpactofthe80percentcutwithabaselinescenarioinwhichthegovernmenttakesnoactionotherthanthelimitedemissionsrestrictionsalreadyinplaceasaresultoftheKyotoprotocol(京都协议书).Mostofthepriceincreasesareaconsequenceofrisingenergycosts,inpartbecausecoalandgasarereplacedbymoreexpensivelow-carbonsources.Thepriceofelectricityisprojectedtobe15percenthigherin2050comparedwiththebaseline.Intoday'sprices,thatwouldaddaround£5ontotypicalmonthlyhouseholdelectricitybills.Itwillalsoresultinhigherpriceselsewhere...
