广东省卫生资源配置分析及需求预测研究【摘要】目的：在十三五背景下，分析 2013-2018 年广东省卫生资源配置情况并根据现有数据预测 2019-2021 年广东省卫生资源需求，以期望实现卫生资源合理配置。方法：通过时间序列分析近年来广东省财力、物力、人力资源，并根据数据建立 GM 模型预测 2019-2021 年广东省卫生资源。结果：广东省医疗卫生机构床位数 2019-2021 年分别为 552307、586455、622715；执业(助理)医师 数 量 分 别 为 293632 、 312146 、 331828 ； 注 册 护 士 数 分 别 为368176、403089、441313。结论：广东省卫生资源总量处于增长趋势；卫生资源配置与城市经济发展存在相关性；根据 2013-2018 年卫生资源数据预测，2020 年注册护士数可达到政策目标，医疗卫生机构床位数和执业(助理)医师数在 2021 年依旧不能达到政策目标。【关键词】卫生资源；卫生资源配置；卫生需求预测Analysis of health resource allocation and demand forecast in Guangdong Province[Abstract] Objective: In the context of the 13th Five-Year Plan, analyze the allocation of health resources in Guangdong Province from 2013 to 2018 and predict the demand for health resources in Guangdong Province from 2019 to 2021 based on existing data, in order to achieve a reasonable allocation of health resources. Methods: Time series analysis of Guangdong's financial, material and human resources in recent years, and the establishment of a GM model based on the data to predict the health resources of Guangdong Province in 2019-2021. Results: The number of beds in medical institutions in Guangdong Province from 2019 to 2021 was 552307, 586455, and 622715; the number of practicing (assistant) doctors were 293632, 312146, and 331828; and the number of registered nurses were 368176, 403089, and 441313, respectively. Conclusion: The total amount of health resources in Guangdong is on the increase; there is a correlation between the allocation of health resources and urb...
