人民币汇率变动对我国进出口的影响

人民币汇率变动对我国进出口影响的实证讨论摘 要：本文主要通过建立线性方程、运用平稳性检验、协整关系分析、格兰杰因果检验, 对进出口贸易与我国汇率之间关系进行实证分析,结果表明:人民币汇率与我国进出口之间存在着长期稳定的均衡关系,出口贸易与汇率在很大程度上是互为因果的关系-出口和汇率的增长都会引起对方的下降,而且汇率对出口的影响大于出口对贸易的影响。近期,汇率的升值促进了进口的增长,但并没削弱出口。我们应当结合实际情况,弱化和抵消人民币升值给我国对外贸易带来的负面影响,来保持我国对外贸易持续、稳定的进展。关键词：平稳性检验，协整关系分析，误差修正模型，汇率，进出口Abstract：In this paper, through establishment the linear equations，use a smooth test, cointegration analysis, Granger causality test, the relationship of the empirical analysis between The import and export trade and China's exchange rate shows that: between the import and export growth and exchange rate fluctuations have a long-term stability of the equilibrium relationship, export trade and the exchange rate is to a large extent the relationship between cause and effect - the growth of exports and the exchange rate will cause a decline in the other side, and the impact of exchange rate than exports. Recently, the exchange rate to appreciate significantly promoted the growth of imports, but did not weaken the export.We should be combined with the actual situation, and to offset the weakening of China's revaluation of the RMB to the negative impact of foreign trade, China's foreign trade to maintain a sustained, stable development.Keywords：stationary test，cointegration analysis，error correction model， exchange rates，import and export一、引言汇率是指用一种货币表示另一种货币的价格，它的变动会影响到经济进展的许多方面，如贸易收支、资本流动、就业状况、物价水平等。对外贸易在一国经济进展中具有非常重要的地位，汇率是一国进行对外贸易活动时所参照的重要价格指标，它的变动...