空气质量评价及影响因素分析研究 环境工程管理专业

摘 要目前我国的大气污染问题仍然严重，多种污染物的排放量居于全球首位。从全国的大气污染情况来看，河北省位于全国前列。沧州市是河北省重要的工业城市之一，为使其经济平稳快速的发展，做好大气污染的防控工作是必经之路。首先选取二氧化硫、二氧化氮和可吸入颗粒物为研究因子。这三种污染物的浓度数据都是通过中国空气质量在线监测分析平台获取得到的。根据三种污染物的季度、月份和年份的浓度变化状况，对空气质量进行了描述性统计分析，之后运用 API 指数评价、综合污染指数评价和模糊综合评价对沧州市空气质量进行了综合性评价，得出沧州市整体空气质量在逐渐改善。接着选取气温、相对湿度、风级作为影响空气质量的三个气象因素，根据 Spearman 秩相关系数和灰色关联度，分析了气象因素对三种污染物的相关性。最后，对沧州市空气质量进行了时间序列预测，得出 2019 年各月份的预测值，根据已知的实际值，得出模型的总体相对误差相对误差较小，说明预测效果较好。关键词：沧州市；空气质量评价；气象影响因素；时间序列预测 AbstractAt present, the problem of air pollution in China is still serious, and the discharge of many pollutants ranks first in the world. From the national air pollution situation, Hebei Province is in the forefront of the country. Handan is one of the important industrial cities in Hebei Province. In order to make its economy develop steadily and rapidly, it is necessary to do a good job in air pollution prevention and control.Firstly, the pollution factors of air quality in Handan City are selected. Sulfur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide and inhalable particulate matter are taken as the research objects in this paper. The concentration data of these three pollutants are obtained through China Air Quality Online Monitoring and Analysis Platform. According to the seasonal, monthly and annual concentration changes of the three pollutants, the descriptive statistical analysis of air quality was carried out. Then, the comprehensive air quality of Handan was evaluated...