洛阳人口的具有外生变量的时间序列预测模型分析研究 计算机科学与技术专业

洛阳人口的具有外生变量的时间序列预测模型摘要：基于人口总量与经济增长有强相关关系，结合时间序列预测模型的良好适应性，建立了将经济增长作为外生变量的人口时间序列预测模型。以洛阳市 1989-2009 年人口总量和GDP 总量数据为例，建立了洛阳市人口发展趋势的含外生变量的时间序列模型。并对模型的精确度进行检验，模型结果精确度较为理想。然后对 2010-2016 年洛阳市人口总量及其增长速度进行了预测。结果显示，“十二五”期间洛阳市总人口在未来几年将保持年均增长量为 3.6 万人，环比平均增长速度为 0.5%，人口总规模将近 680 万。关键词：洛阳市；人口预测；外生变量；线性时间序列； A Time Series Prediction Model with exogenous variables for Luoyang PopulationAbstract: Based on the fact that population and economic growth has a strong relationship, with time series forecasting model of good adaptability, the establishment of the economic growth of the population as an exogenous variable time series forecasting model. Luoyang City, 1989-2009 by volume and GDP, the population data, for example, established the Luoyang City with population trends of the time series model of exogenous variables. And accuracy of the model can be tested, the results of model accuracy is better. Then the total population in Luoyang 2010-2016 and the growth rate is predicted. The results showed that the "twelfth five-year" period the total population in Luoyang City in the next few years will maintain an average annual growth in volume of 3.6 million, the Central than the average growth rate of 0.5%, the total size of nearly 6.8 million population.Key words: Luoyang City; population projections; exogenous variable; linear time series; 0 前言时问序列是按照时问顺序取得的一系列观察值，时间序列数据的本质特征就是相邻观察值之间的依赖性。所以在对时间序列数据进行分析时，一般的回归模型难以体现变量自身前后及应变量与自变量过去的依赖关系。ARIMA 模型是对变量自身前后依...