目录摘要..........................................................................................................................................................2Abstract.....................................................................................................................................................31引言........................................................................................................................................................12预备知识................................................................................................................................................22.1模型的预处理....................................................................................................................................22.2模型的识别、定阶............................................................................................................................32.3模型的检验、拟合及预测................................................................................................................33中国国内游客数量的建模及预测......................................................................................................43.1数据分析............................................................................................................................................43.2模型预处理........................................................................................................................................63.3模型定阶............................................................................................................................................93.4模型检验............................................................................................................................................93.5模型的预测效果评价.......................................................................................................................104.结论....................................................................................................................................................11中国国内游客数量的时间序列分析摘要本文将1994至2014年中国国内游客数量的年度数据作为一个时间序列，找出国内游客数量的变化与时间之间的关系，建立相关的模型，对中国国内游客未来五年的数量进行预测分析，得出如果对旅游结构进行相应的调整，对旅游消费市场的开拓提出有利的策略和思路，那么旅游经济的结构将向合理化、健康化发展，进一步促进我国经济发展的结论。该论文有图8幅，表2个，参考文献8篇。关键词：时间序列模型预测国内游客数量AppliedTimeSeriesAnalysisofChinesedomestictouristsAbstractInthispaper,weconsidertheannualdataofthenumberofdomestictouristsinChinafrom1994to2014asatimeseriestofindouttherelationshipbetweenthechangeofthenumberofdomestictouristsandthetime,andestablishtherelevantmodelstoforecastthenumberofChinesedomestictouristsinthenextfiveyears.Itisconcludedthatifthetourismstructurebeadjustedandthefavorablestrategiesandideasareputforwardforthedevelopmentofthetourismconsumptionmarket,andthestructureofthetourismeconomywillbringabouttherationalizationandhealthydevelopmentandfurtherpromoteChina'seconomicdevelopment.ThepaperhasFigure8,Table2,reference8articles.KeyWords:AppliedTimeSeriesAnalysisModelPredictNumberofdomestictourists图清单图序号图名称页码图3-1中国国内游客数量的时序图5图3-2中国国内游客数量的自相关图6图3-3一阶差分后的时...
