摘要快速路交通量具有复杂性和不确定性，对交通量的准确预测是实现智能交通诱导和控制的基础。智能交通能解决道路交通拥堵，减少交通事故，减少大气污染等现实难题，是我国道路交通发展的方向。充分考虑到快速路交通量所具有的非线性，时变性和随机性，提出将支持向量机回归算法应用到快速路小时交通量预测中。根据我国交通情况，利用广州某快速路小时交通量数据，进行快速路小时交通量预测。仿真研究结果表明，支持向量机泛化能力好，学习速度快，在快速路小时交通量预测中起着重要作用。关键词：小时交通量；交通量预测；支持向量机回归；仿真研究AbstractExpresswaytrafficflowhasthecomplexityanduncertainty,theaccuratetrafficflowforecastingisthefoundationtorealizeintelligenttrafficguidancetocontrol.Intelligenttransportationcansolvetrafficcongestion,reducetrafficaccidents,reducetherealisticproblemssuchasairpollution,isthedirectionofourcountryroadtrafficdevelopment.Theexpresswaytrafficflowisnonlinear,time-varyingandrandomness,thesupportvectormachine(SVM)regressionalgorithmwasappliedtoexpresswayhoursintrafficflowprediction.Accordingtothetrafficsituationinourcountry,usetheoneofGuangzhou’sexpresswaystrafficflowdatatoforecastanhourexpresswaytrafficflow.Simulationresultsshowthatthegeneralizationandlearningabilityofsupportvectormachine(SVM)iswell,hoursinexpresswaytrafficflowforecastingplaysanimportantrole.Keywords:hourlytrafficvolume;trafficflowforecasting;supportvectormachineregression;simulationresearch目录摘要...............................................................IAbstract...........................................................II第1章绪论.........................................................11.1课题背景....................................................11.2研究目的和意义...............................................21.3国内外文献综述..............................................21.4本论文主要内容..............................................3第2章支持向量机理论...............................................52.1支持向量机概述..............................................52.2支持向量机回归及其类型......................................92.3本章小结....................................................9第3章交通流参数及预测方法........................................103.1交通流基本参数.............................................103.2交通流量数据的采集和特性...................................103.3交通流预测的方法...........................................113.3.1交通状态预测概述......................................113.3.2交通量短时预测方法....................................123.4本章小结...................................................13第4章基于支持向量机的小时交通流预测..............................144.1概述.......................................................144.2支持向量机回归的交通信息预测...............................144.3支持向量机的交通信息预测的具体步骤.........................154.4本章小结...................................................16第5章仿真研究....................................................175.1交通流量预测...............................................175.2本章小结...................................................30结论...............................................................31参考文献...........................................................32致谢...............................................................33第1章绪论1.1课题背景城市交通系统是城市经济社会活动的基础设施...
