五邑大学本科毕业设计摘要进入21世纪以来，人们的社会生活水平逐渐提高，随着车辆在大多数城市居民中的普及，城市交通拥堵问题恶化迅速。为切实地解决这个问题，合理地安排交通运行，提高交通设施的使用效率，必须进行交通流的合理分配以及信号灯的优化配置，准确的短时交通流量预测是解决这些问题的重要依据。近年来BP神经网络被广泛应用于预测研究。本文设计了三层BP神经网络用于短时交通流量预测。将预测日前三天同时段的交通量作为输入信号，预测当日某时段的交通量。文中用江门市区小时交通量数据进行了仿真实验，结果表明该用方法进行短时交通流量预测是可行的。最后，对预测结果的准确性进行分析和讨论。关键词短时交通流量；BP神经网络；改进；仿真；预测五邑大学本科毕业设计AbstractSincetwenty-firstCentury,thesociallifelevelofpeopleisincreasinggradually,alongwiththevehicleinmostcityresidentsinthepopular,citytrafficcongestionproblemdeterioratedrapidly.Inordertosolvethisproblem,arrangethetransportationoperationrationally,improvetheefficiencyoftheuseoftransportationfacilities,optimizetheallocationofareasonableallocationtotrafficflowandsignallamp,accuratetrafficflowforecastingisanimportantbasisforsolvingtheseproblems.Inrecentyears,theBPneuralnetworkhasbeenwidelyusedinthepredictionof.Thispaperdesignstheshort-termtrafficflowforecastingforthethreelayerBPneuralnetwork.Thepredictionoftrafficvolumeinthreedaystimerecentlyastheinputsignal,thetrafficvolumeforecastatatime.WithJiangmenurbantrafficvolumedatabasedonthesimulationresults,theresultsshowthatthemethodforshort-termtrafficflowforecastingisfeasible.Finally,theaccuracyofthepredictionresultsareanalyzedanddiscussed.KeywordsShort-termtrafficflowBPneuralnetworkImproveSimulationForecastI五邑大学本科毕业设计目录摘要............................................................................................................................................IAbstract..........................................................................................................................................II第1章绪论....................................................................................................................................11.1课题背景............................................................................................................................11.2研究目的和意义................................................................................................................11.3本文研究的主要内容........................................................................................................11.4本文章节安排....................................................................................................................2第2章神经网络介绍....................................................................................................................32.1神经网络的发展现状........................................................................................................32.2神经网络的结构................................................................................................................32.2.1人工神经元..............................................................................................................32.2.2神经网络的结构......................................................................................................42.3神经网络的应用与存在问题.................................................................................
