I摘要伴随着社会科学的迅猛发展，数学在生活中的应用越来越广泛，在我们的身边可以说是“无所不在”的；作为数学的一个重要部分——概率论，同样也具备着十分重要的作用.概率论是数学的一个重要分支，是专门研究讨论和揭示自然界中随机发生的现象及规律的数学学科,在实际生活有广泛的应用,把条件概率的知识运用到生活中，提出并解决问题.关键词：条件概率；贝叶斯公式；诚信；坚持不懈IIAbstractWiththerapiddevelopmentofsocialsciences,mathematicshaswidelyusedinourdailylife,cantosaynowherever,whateverasanimportantpartofmathematics,probabilitytheory，andalsoplayaveryimportantrole.Probabilitytheoryasanimportantbranchofmathematics,itisaspecializedresearchandrevealtherandomphenomenonanditsregularityinmathematicsdiscipline,haswidelyapplicationinreallife,canonlybebetterreasonableuseconditionalprobabilityknowledgetopractice.Usingprobabilityknowledgetoexplainthecaseinreallife.Keywords：ConditionalProbability；Bayesformula；integrity；persistence目录摘要................................................................................................................................IAbstract..........................................................................................................................II目录..............................................................................................................................III1.引言.............................................................................................................................12.《范进中举》故事及其概率解读............................................................................12.1《范进中举》的故事概述.............................................................................12.2概率乘法公式解读《范进中举》.................................................................12.2.1条件概率.............................................................................................12.2.2概率乘法公式....................................................................................12.2.3用概率乘法公式解读《范进中举》................................................22.3用概率思想解释水滴石穿............................................................................22.4用概率思想解释的现实问题.........................................................................32.5《范进中举》引申的社会意义......................................................................33．《狼来了》故事及其概率解读..............................................................................53.1《狼来了》故事概述......................................................................................53.2用贝叶斯公式解读《狼来了》....................................................................53.2.1贝叶斯公式.........................................................................................53.2.2用贝叶斯公式解读《狼来了》........................................................53.3用概率思想解释银行贷款问题......................................................................63.4用概率思想解释现实问题..............................................................................73.5《狼来了》引申的社会意义..........................................................................94.总结..........................................................................................................................11参考文献...........................
