煤矿估值模型

产品每吨价格（元）100单位：万元2008200920100年采量（万吨）2784120回收率 80%年售出量（万吨）96主营业务收入99,933 83,800 92,256 主营业务成本30244,420 40,935 28,000 毛利率44.45%48.85%69.65%主营业务税金及附加主营业务税金及附加/收入1.65%3.28%2.47%------------------主营营业利润64,256 其他营业利润销售费用631.16 销售费用/收入0.72%0.65%0.68%管理费用18,451 管理费用/收入12.22%19.12%20.00%财务费用财务费用/收入- ------------------营业利润45,174 营业外收入营业外支出------------------利润总额45,174 所得税25%11,293 ------------------净利润33,880 净利润率36.72%估值折现率19%19折现系数1.00DCF企业估值（2010年底评估日）2010净利润33,880 加：折旧与摊销1,286 减：资本性支出自由现金流35,166 折现现金流35,166 股权价值202,836 73%股权价值148,070 采矿权估值（2010年底评估日）20100净利润33,880 加：折旧与摊销1,286 减：资本性支出84,430自由现金流-47,266 折现系数1.00折现现金流-47,266采矿权价值120,40373%采矿权价值87,894每吨储量矿权价值18.7309年底净资产81,99910年的净利润33,880 10年未分配利润3,388 10年底净资产85,387 10年底采矿权净值957 10年底的资本性支出84,430 DDM估值分红比率90%净利润73%股权分红分红折现值分红现值合计回报分析期初投入自由现金流-90000IRR27.52%回报分析净利润所占股份73%分红比率90%分红-90000分红IRR24.30%敏感性分析DCF估值148,070 70020996727.50%20996727.50%20996727.50%750 24661585.34%24661585.34%24661585.34%800 28326443.19%28326443.19%28326443.19%850 31991301.04%31991301.04%31991301.04%90035656158.88%35656158.88%35656158.88%950 39321016.73%39321016.73%39321016.73%100042985874.58%42985874.58%42985874.58%1050 46650732.42%46650732.42%46650732.42%110050315590.27%50315590.27%50315590.27%1150 53980448.12%53980448.12%53980448.12%1200 57645305.96%57645305.96%57645305.96%1250 61310163.81%61310163.81% 61310163.81%130064975021.65%64975021.65%64975021.65%DDM估值110,184 30%11217866.80%11217866.80%11217866.80%产品价格40%14957155.73%14957155.73%14957155.73%50%18696444.66%18696444.66%18696444.66%60%22435733.59%22435733.59%22435733.59%70%26175022.52%26175022.52%26175022....