实证讨论万能寿险保单盈利能力分析万能寿险保单盈利能力分析任淮秀 马晓平摘 要：与传统寿险相比，万能寿险保单具有保障和投资功能、提供最低收益保证、保险利益直接与投资收益相连、保单变更灵活和产品透明等特点，进而万能保单的盈利模式也与传统寿险不同。本文对万能寿险保单的个人账户投资资产构建对数正态分布模型，计算账户价值，利用现金流法计算万能寿险保单公司账户责任准备金，进而计算公司利润水平指标，然后通过随机模拟对影响万能寿险保单盈利能力的个人账户收益率、留存收益率、公司账户投资收益率、贴现利率、生存和死亡概率等因素进行了分析。关键词：万能寿险；对数正态分布；现金流；盈利能力Profitability Analysis of Universal Life PolicyRen Huaixiu，Ma XiaopingAbstract: Compared with traditional life insurance, universal life policy has many different characteristicsincluding security, investment, minimum return guarantee, benefit directly based on rate of return of investment,flexiBility and transparenCy of poliCy etC.. Due to those, the profit model of universal life poliCy is different fromtraditional life poliCy. The thesis focuses on establishing the lognormal return model for assets in the privateaccount, by which the rate of return and value of private account are conducted. At the same time, the reserves forthe company account are explored by using cash flow methodology and profitability index is determined.Simultaneously, through stochastic simulating, the thesis also analyzes some factors which influence the profitabilityof company account, these factors are composed of the rate of return for private account, retaining rate, discount rateand mortality etc..Key words: Universal life insurance，Lognormal distribution，Cash flow，Profitability.作者简介：任淮秀，1956 年 11 月 30 日出生，经济学博士，中国人民大学财政金融学院教授，博士生导师，学院教授委员会副主席，讨论方向：投资理论与实践，包括实业投资、金融投资与产权投资、投资银行组织与管理；马...
