表 1 为某公司连续 144 个月的月度销售量记录，变量为 sales。试用专家模型、ARIMA 模型和季节性分解模型分析此数据。表 1 某公司连续 141 个月月度销售记录数据日期sales日期sales日期sales09/01/197811209/01/198219609/01/198631510/01/197811810/01/198219610/01/198630111/01/197813211/01/198223611/01/198635612/01/197812912/01/198223512/01/198634801/01/197912101/01/198322901/01/198735502/01/197913502/01/198324302/01/198742203/01/197914803/01/198326403/01/198746504/01/197914804/01/198327204/01/198746705/01/197913605/01/198323705/01/198740406/01/197911906/01/198321106/01/198734707/01/197910407/01/198318007/01/198730508/01/197911808/01/198320108/01/198733609/01/197911509/01/198320409/01/198734010/01/197912610/01/198318810/01/198731811/01/197914111/01/198323511/01/198736212/01/197913512/01/198322712/01/198734801/01/198012501/01/198423401/01/198836302/01/198014902/01/198426402/01/198843503/01/198017003/01/198430203/01/198849104/01/198017004/01/198429304/01/198850505/01/198015805/01/198425905/01/198840406/01/198013306/01/198422906/01/198835907/01/198011407/01/198420307/01/198831008/01/198014008/01/198422908/01/198833709/01/198014509/01/198424209/01/198836010/01/198015010/01/198423310/01/198834211/01/198017811/01/198426711/01/198840612/01/198016312/01/198426912/01/198839601/01/198117201/01/198527001/01/198942002/01/198117802/01/198531502/01/198947203/01/198119903/01/198536403/01/198954804/01/198119904/01/198534704/01/198955905/01/198118405/01/198531205/01/198946306/01/198116206/01/198527406/01/198940707/01/198114607/01/198523707/01/198936208/01/198116608/01/198527808/01/198940509/01/198117109/01/198528409/01/198941710/01/198118010/01/198527710/01/198939111/01/198119311/01/198531711/01/198941912/01/198118112/01/198531312/01/198946101/01/198218301/01/198631801/01/199047202/01/198221802/01/198637402/01/199053503/01/198223003/01/198641303/01/199062204/01/198224204/01/198640504/01/199060605/01/198220905/01/198635505/01/199050806/01/198219106/01/198630606/01/199046107/01/198217207/...
