COMMODITYRISKMANAGEMENTSoybeanFundamentals大豆供求基本面形势二七年十月〇〇COMMODITYRISKMANAGEMENTSoybeanFundamentals06/07年度和07/08年度美国大豆供求平衡表（10月12日美国农业部数据）COMMODITYRISKMANAGEMENTSoybeanFundamentals美国农业部数据和之前业界平均预估的比较（一）COMMODITYRISKMANAGEMENTSoybeanFundamentals美国农业部数据和之前业界平均预估的比较（二）COMMODITYRISKMANAGEMENTSoybeanFundamentals美国农业部数据和之前业界平均预估的比较（三）COMMODITYRISKMANAGEMENTSoybeanFundamentals06/07年度第四季度美国大豆结余库存573449COMMODITYRISKMANAGEMENTSoybeanFundamentals美国大豆的期末结转库存（10月12日美国农业部数据）USSoybeanCarryout(millionbushel)-340010020030040050060082838485868788899091929394959697989900010203040506075月/6156月/6107月/6008月/5759月/55510月/573-3588月/2209月/21510月/215COMMODITYRISKMANAGEMENTSoybeanFundamentals美国大豆的库存消费比（10月12日美国农业部数据）USSoybeanCarryout/Use-10.700.005.0010.0015.0020.0025.0030.0082838485868788899091929394959697989900010203040506077月/8.2%8月/7.4%9月/7.3%10月/7.3%COMMODITYRISKMANAGEMENTSoybeanFundamentals美国大豆供求比例和价格之间的关系COMMODITYRISKMANAGEMENTSoybeanFundamentals目前美盘大豆的位置4.4%5.4%7.3%COMMODITYRISKMANAGEMENTSoybeanFundamentals美国大豆产量和需求之差USSoybeanProductionvsUse1000150020002500300035008283848586878889909192939495969798990001020304050607USSoybeanUseTotal(millionbushel)USSoybeanProduction(millionbushel)29622598-364COMMODITYRISKMANAGEMENTSoybeanFundamentals07/08年度美国大豆的收获面积USHarvestedSoybeanAcres(million)-11.31755.00060.00065.00070.00075.00080.000828384858687888990919293949596979899000102030405060762.8-11.8COMMODITYRISKMANAGEMENTSoybeanFundamentals美国大豆的趋势单产42.1COMMODITYRISKMANAGEMENTSoybeanFundamentals美国大豆长势（优良率）的比较COMMODITYRISKMANAGEMENTSoybeanFundamentals美国大豆的单产USSoybeanYield(bushel/acre)-1.3020.025.030.035.040.045.082838485868788899091929394959697989900010203040506075月/41.56月/41.57月/41.58月/41.59月/41.410月/41.406/0742.7COMMODITYRISKMANAGEMENTSoybeanFundamentals08/09年度美国大豆供求形势•07-0808-09•Planted63.772.5–71.17(+800万英亩)•Harvested62.871.6–70.25•Yield41.4–42.542.5•Carryin573215–280•Production2604–26693045–2985•Total3177–32423260–3265•TotalUse29623090(+3.5%)•Carryout215–280170–175COMMODITYRISKMANAGEMENTSoybeanFundamentals07/08年度截至第五周美国大豆的销售进度Sep:975-13%Oct:975-13%COMMODITYRISKMANAGEMENTSoybeanFundamentals美国大豆的期末结转库存（10月12日美国农业部数据）USSoybeanCarryout(millionbushel)-340010020030040050060082838485868788899091929394959697989900010203040506070808/09175COMMODITYRISKMANAGEMENTSoybeanFundamentals美国大豆的库存消费比（9月12日美国农业部数据）USSoybeanCarryout/Use-10.700.005.0010.0015.0020.0025.0030.0082838485868788899091929394959697989900010203040506075.3%08COMMODITYRISKMANAGEMENTSoybeanFundamentals美国大豆供求比例和价格之间的关系COMMODITYRISKMANAGEMENTSoybeanFundamentals08/09年度新作大豆和玉米的盘面价格比COMMODITYRISKMANAGEMENTSoybeanFundamentals目前新玉米和新大豆的种植效益比较•玉米大豆•单产15342•新作价格4.009.60（2.4）••总收入612403•可变成本18097•毛收入432306COMMODITYRISKMANAGEMENTSoybeanFundamentals美国大豆供求形势前瞻U.S.Soybeans:LongView07-0808-0909-10Planted63.771.770.3Harvested62.869.969.5Yield41.442.543.5Carryin573215166Production260029713023Available317731863189TotalUse296230203070Carryout...
