资源环境约束下青岛市人口聚集与承载力研究摘要人口规模控制是我国大城市发展而临的共同困境。以可能满意度模型为基础，综合考虑水资源、大气环境、能源和水环境四个方而的指标，通过资源环境承载力的多目标一多情景决策模型对青岛市人口综合承载力进行测算。研究发现:水资源、大气环境和水环境对人口的限制性较大，综合考虑可持续发展能力，青岛市2020年最佳的承载人口为1250万人；在适当提高可能满意度值，降低经济代价的情况下，可接受的人口规模为1200-1500万。关键词：资源环境承载力；多目标一多情景；人口承载力；综合调控；青岛市StudyonpopulationagglomerationandcarryingcapacityofQingdaounderrestrictionofresourcesandenvironmentAbstractPopulationscalecontrolisacommondilemmaforthedevelopmentofbigcitiesinourcountry.InMaythesatisfactionmodelbasedonindexconsideringwaterresources,atmosphericenvironment,energyandwaterenvironmentinfouraspects,amulti-objectivedecisionmodelofscenariobycalculatethecarryingcapacityofresourcesandenvironmentcarryingcapacityofQingdaocitypopulation.Thestudyfound:waterresources,atmosphericenvironmentandwaterenvironmentonthepopulationmorerestrictive,consideringthecapacityofsustainabledevelopmentofQingdaocityin2020thebestbearingpopulationwas12million500thousand;inmayappropriatelyraisethesatisfactionvalue,reducetheeconomiccost,acceptablepopulationsizeof1200-1500million.Keywords:resourcesandenvironmentcarryingcapacity;multiobjectiveandmultisituation;populationcarryingcapacity;comprehensiveregulation;QingdaoCity目录第1章引言.........................................................11.1研究背景.....................................................11.2研究目的与意义...............................................11.2.1研究目的...............................................1第2章研究理论与方法介绍...........................................32.1可能一满意度模型.............................................32.2承载力综合决策模型...........................................32.3多要素调控控制方法...........................................4第3章青岛市的人口现状和存在问题...................................53.1青岛市概况...................................................53.2资源环境约束下的青岛市人口承载力存在问题....................53.2.1水资源.................................................53.2.2水环境.................................................63.2.3能源...................................................63.2.4大气环境...............................................6第4章实证分析.....................................................74.1可能-满意度模型建立.........................................74.1.1可能度.................................................74.1.2满意度.................................................74.1.3可能-满意度............................................84.2情景和目标设定分析..........................................8第5章提高青岛市人口承载力的政策和建议............................125.1转变发展观念................................................125.2构建环境承载力评价制度......................................135.3制定合理的经济政策..........................................135.3.1力求经济的持续、适度快速和协调增长....................135.3.2调整青岛市产业结构，优化生产要素资源配置..............135.3.3调整青岛工业布局......................................145.3.4发展循环经济..........................................145.4制定合理的环境政策..........................................145.4.1...
