2016年上海外国语大学专业学位英语口译/笔译初试英语翻译基础（100分）12月26日14:00—17:00I.Cloze.(共15个空，一空两分，共30分)卷子上的标题是Here’swhythe“Americancentury”willsurviveriseofChinaTheAmericancenturywillsurvivetheriseofChinaJosephNyeMarch25,2015EntropyisagreaterchallengethanChinesegrowth,writesJosephNyeIn1941TimeeditorHenryLuceproclaimed“theAmericancentury”.Somenowseethiscomingtoanendas1.aresultofthenation’seconomicandpoliticaldecline.ManypointtotheexampleofUSfailuretoconvinceitsalliestostayoutoftheAsianInfrastructureInvestmentBank,Beijing’srivaltotheWorldBank;butthiswas2.moreanexampleofafaultydecisionthanevidenceofdecline,whichraisesthequestionofwhatisthenaturallifecycleofanation.Acenturyisgenerallythelimitforahumanorganismbutcountriesaresocialconstructs.Romedidnotcollapseuntilmorethanthreecenturiesafteritreacheditsapogeeofpowerin117AD.AfterAmericanindependencein1776HoraceWalpole,theBritishpolitician,lamentedthathisnationhadbeenreducedtothelevelofSardinia,justasBritainwasabouttoentertheindustrialrevolutionthat3.powereditssecondcenturyasaglobalpower.AnyeffortatassessingAmericanpowerinthecomingdecadesshould4.takeintoaccounthowmanyearliereffortshavebeenwideofthemark.Itischasteningtorememberhowwildly5.exaggeratedUSestimatesofSovietpowerinthe1970sandofJapanesepowerinthe1980swere.TodaysomeseetheChineseas10fttallandproclaimthis“theChinesecentury”.China’ssizeandrelativelyrapideconomicgrowthwillbringitclosertotheUSintermsofitspowerresourcesinthenextfewdecades.ButthisdoesnotnecessarilymeanitwillsurpasstheUSinmilitary,economicandsoftpower.6.EvenifChinasuffersnobigdomesticpoliticalsetback,manyprojectionsaresimplelinearextrapolationsofgrowthratesthatarelikelytoslowinthefuture.7.Moreover,economicprojectionsareonedimensional.TheyignoreUSmilitaryandsoftpoweradvantages,suchasthedesireofstudentsaroundtheworldtoattendUSuniversities.TheyalsooverlookChina’sgeopolitical8.dis-advantagesintheAsianbalanceofpower,comparedwithAmerica’srelationswithEurope,JapanandIndia,whicharelikelytoremainmorefavourable.ItisnotimpossiblethatachallengersuchasChina,Europe,Russia,IndiaorBrazilwillsurpasstheUSinthefirsthalfofthiscenturybutitisbutnotlikely.Onthequestionofabsoluteratherthan9.relativeAmericandecline,theUSfacesseriousproblemsinareassuchasdebt,secondaryeducation,incomein?equalityandpoliticalgridlockbuttheseareonlypartofthepicture.Onthepositivesideoftheledgerarefavourabletrendsindemography,technologyandenergyaswellasabidingfactorssuchasgeographyandentrepreneurialculture.Thescenariosthatcould10.precipitatedeclineincludeonesinwhichtheUSoverreactstoterroristattacksbyturninginwardsandthuscutsitselfofffromthestrengthitobtainsfromopenness.Alternativelyitcouldreactbyovercommittingitself,andwastingbloodandtreasureasitdidinVietnamandIraq.Asanoverallassessment,describingthe21stcenturyasoneofAmericandeclineisinaccurateandmisleading.ThoughtheUShasproblemsitisnotinabsolutedecline,unlikeancientRome,anditislikelytoremainmorepowerfulthananysinglestateincomingdecades.TherealproblemisnotthatitwillbeovertakenbyChinaoranothercontenderbutratherthatitfacesariseinthepowerresourcesofmanyothers—bothstatesandnon-stateactorssuchastransnationalcorporations,terroristgroupsandcybercriminals.Anditwillfaceanincreasingnumberofglobalproblemsthatwill11.callonourabilitytoorganisealliancesandnetworks.12.Contrarytotheviews...
