目录摘要....................................................................1关键词....................................................................1一、引言..................................................................2二、综述..................................................................2三、现状分析..............................................................3四、建模..................................................................5（一）模型选择...........................................................5（二）数据说明...........................................................61．目标变量.............................................................62．解释变量.............................................................63．样本选取.............................................................8（三）模型建立...........................................................8五、模型分析..............................................................9（一）数据处理..........................................................10（二）回归计算..........................................................10（三）模型检验..........................................................111．统计检验............................................................112．计量经济学检验......................................................123．经济意义检验........................................................13（四）模型评价..........................................................13六、预测.................................................................14七、结论.................................................................15参考文献.................................................................17第1页共16页编号：时间：2021年x月x日书山有路勤为径，学海无涯苦作舟页码：第1页共16页我国私人汽车保有量的分析及预测统计031陆诚煜学号：2070403138指导老师：胡荣华［摘要］我国经济的快速发展为私人汽车提供了巨大的发展空间，同时汽车保有量的大幅增加势必对土地、能源和环境带来巨大压力，这就需要对影响私人汽车发展的主要因素进行分析，对其保有量的发展趋势做出科学判断。本文根据近年来国内各项经济指标，运用线性回归方法，给出了一个适用于短期预测的计量经济学模型及进行各项检验的详细过程，并据此较为准确合理的预测了我国2006年和2007年的私人汽车保有量，进而提出贯彻科学发展观，走可持续发展道路将是促进我国未来私人汽车良性发展的客观要求。［关键词］私人汽车保有量计量经济学模型预测Abstract:Therapideconomicaldevelopmentofourcountryhasprovidedgreatdevelopmentspacefortheprivatevehicleandthesignificantincreaseofprivatevehiclepopulationwillinevitablybringgreatpressuretotheland,resourcesofenergyandtheenvironment,soitisnecessarytoanalyzethemainfactorsthataffectthedevelopmentofourprivatevehicle,andthenmakeareasonablejudgmenttothedevelopmenttrendofthevehiclequantity.Accordingtotheeconomicindicesofrecentyears,thispaperconstructsaneconometricmodelwhichissuitableforshorttermpredicationbylinearregressionmethodandintroducestheconcreteprocessofsometest,andthenthecomparativelyaccurateprivatevehiclepopulationofChinain2006and2007areforecasted,Thenitpointsoutthattheimplementationofscientificdevelopmentconcept,adoptingsustainabledevelopmentpolicywillbetheobjectiverequirementsofprivatevehicledevelopmentofChinainthefuture.Keywords：privatevehiclequantity;modelofeconometrics;forecast一、引言每年上万亿美元的汽车产业是世界经济的支柱产业之一，没有任何...
