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HowToDoExactlytheRightThingareAllPossibleTimesorTheIdeaThatChangetheWorldNothing第一页，共十二页。E(u|p,X)=∑p(x)u(x)第二页，共十二页。E(u|p,X)=∑p(x)u(x)ExpectedValue=(OddsofGain)X(ValueofGain)第三页，共十二页。ExpectedValue=(OddsofGain)X(ValueofGain)½X￥10=￥5Yes!第四页，共十二页。ExpectedValue=(OddsofGain)X(ValueofGain)ErrorsinOddsErrorsinValue第五页，共十二页。ErrorsinOddsAretheremore4-letterEnglishwordswithRinthe3rdor1stplace?__R_R___RING,RANG,RUNG…DARE,BARE,PARK…第六页，共十二页。ErrorsinOddsCauseEstimateTomado564Fireworks160Asthma506Drowning1684Per200millionUSresidentsperyearActual90618867380第七页，共十二页。ErrorsinValueIIsthisBigMacworth￥17?ComparingWiththePastinsteadofthePossible第八页，共十二页。ErrorsinValue:ComparingwiththePast￥40KInYear3￥50KInYear2￥45KInYear2￥60KInYear1￥35KInYear1￥55KInYear3第九页，共十二页。ErrorsinValue:ComparingwiththePossible￥￥33￥68￥99￥368第十页，共十二页。ConclusionIfwe’resostupid,thenhowdidwegetonthemoon?第十一页，共十二页。内容总结HowToDoExactlytheRight。ThingareAllPossibleTimes。E(u|p,X)=∑p(x)u(x)。(OddsofGain)X(ValueofGain)。½X￥10。Aretheremore4-letterEnglish。DARE,BARE,PARK。InYear3。Conclusion第十二页，共十二页。