精品文档---下载后可任意编辑Review Questions12.1-1 The decision alternatives are to drill for oil or to sell the land.12.1-2 The consulting geologist believes that there is 1 chance in 4 of oil on the tract of land.12.1-3 Max does not put much faith in the assessment.12.1-4 A detailed seismic survey of the land could be done to obtain more information.12.1-5 The possible states of nature are the possible outcomes of the random factors that affect the payoff that would be obtained from a decision alternative.12.1-6 Prior probabilities are the estimated probabilities of the states of nature prior to obtaining additional information through a test or survey.12.1-7 The payoffs are quantitative measures of the outcomes from a decision alternative and a state of nature. Payoffs are generally expressed in monetary terms.12.2-1 The maximax criterion identifies the maximum payoff for each decision alternative and chooses the decision alternative with the maximum of these maximum payoffs. The maximax criterion is for the eternal optimist.12.2-2 The maximax citerion completely ignores the prior probabilities and ignores all payoffs except for the largest one.12.2-3 The maximin criterion identifies the minimum payoff for each decision alternative and chooses the decision alternative with the maximum of these minimum payoffs. The maximin criterion is for the total pessimist.12.2-4 The maximin criterion ignores the prior probabilities and ignores all payoffs except the maximin payoff.12.2-5 The maximum likelihood criterion focuses on the most likely state of nature, the one with the largest prior probability.12.2-6 Criticisms of the maximum likelihood criterion include: 1) this criterion chooses an alternative without considering...
