人 民 币 升 值 对 浙 江 机 电 产 品 出口 影 响 及 对 策 分 析摘 要：自 2005 年 7 月，我国开始实行有管理的浮动汇率制度以来，人民币兑美元汇率持续升值。人民币汇率升值会影响产品出口，尤其是价格低廉的劳动密集型产品。机电产品是浙江总出口中所占比重最高的产品，其出口也受到人民币升值的很大影响。本文将基于汇率变动对产品出口的传导机制，分析人民币升值对浙江机电产品出口的影响，并进一步作实证检验。分析结果显示：机电产品出口与人民币实际有效汇率以及贸易伙伴国的国内生产总值之间都存在长期的关系。对浙江省机电产品出口模型中的解释变量和被解释变量之间进行格兰杰因果分析，人民币升值(LREER) 是浙江机电产品出口(LEX) 下降的格兰杰原因，从统计意义上来说，人民币升值会减少浙江机电产品的出口。同理，贸易伙伴国的国内生产总值增加会使浙江机电产品出增加。关键词：人民币升值；浙江；机电产品；出口The influence of the RMB’s appreciation on mechanical products and countermeasure in ZheJiang Abstract：In July 2005, China began to implement a managed floating exchange rate system, which means that China's exchange rate regime reform, an important step on the road, have aroused widespread attention at home and abroad. Appreciation of RMB exchange rate will affect the product export, especially cheap labor-intensive products. Mechanical and electrical products is the largest proportion of our export products, also in zhejiang province's total exports accounted for is also high. In recent years, due to the influence of European and American financial crisis, the RMB has been revaluation pressure, the appreciation of the renminbi under the background of the research on the influence of mechanical and electrical products export of zhejiang has very important practical significance.This article is based on exchange rate movements transmission mechanism of the export of products, the analysis of the effect of the appreciation of the re...
