《经济学人》跨国公司在中国调查报告之二VIP专享

China and the global economyWhy ignoring China is no longer an option.....Robin Bew, Chief EconomistJune 2004The global outlookKey points for 2004-05World growth fantastic best for 20 years in 2004 developed and emerging markets surging aheadExceptional times cannot last tipping point may have already passed international liquidity is tightening coping with the transition global policy tightening will slow world growthSlowdown likely, but risks of worseUnited States outlookRecent performance stunning more to come in the year aheadBut policy stimulus being withdrawn strong momentum, but balance sheets? Restraining factors debts are high, spare capacity, assets prices vulnerable, external deficit2004 are great, but business conditions tougher in 2005-06?JapanDomestic economy is restructuring under cover of export led growthBut needs more time SME weakness, overcapacity, no pricing power cannot yet offset export slowdownExport deceleration will stall reform still a long way to go before domestic recovery in placeEuro zone outlookOnly a sluggish recovery exports but the euro  restocking, capex business subdued consumers jobs, pensionsPolicy boost? debt levels pension fearsReform efforts?0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.5Q1-98Q3-99Q1-01Q3-02Q1-04Q3-05GDP growth, %Y-on-YThe emerging worldBenefiting from OECD pickup import demand surgingSelling into other emerging markets regional trade dynamicsBut risk appetite has fallen sharply past 18mths were extraordinary but investors now leaving spreads risingChina’s role in the global storyKey points for 2004-05World growth fantastic China is 6th largest economy at market prices, 2nd at PPP, growing at 9%Exceptional times cannot last Chinese policy tig...