(完整版)TED演讲—JosephNye《21世纪权力的变迁》(中英对照)VIP专享VIP免费

I'mgoingtotalktoyouaboutpowerinthis21stcentury.Andbasically,whatI'dliketotellyouisthatpowerischanging,andtherearetwotypesofchangesIwanttodiscuss.Oneispowertransition,whichischangeofpoweramongststates.Andtheyarethesimpleversionofthemessage,isit'smovingfromWesttoEast.Theotherispowerdiffusion,thewaypowerismovingfromallstates,WestorEast,tonon-stateactors.Thosetwothingsarethehugeshiftsofpowerinourcentury.AndIwanttotellyouaboutthemeachseparatelyandthenhowtheyinteractandwhy,intheend,theremaybesomegoodnews.我想讨论的是21世纪的权利。基本上我想告诉大家的是权利的变化，有两种变化是我想探讨的。一种是权利的转移，国家和国家之间的权利变化。这是对权利转移的简单解读，即权利正从西方转移到东方。另一种是权利的分散，即权利的转移是从西方和东方的各个国家到非国家的范围。以上两种情况是本世纪权利的重要转移。我想分别说说这两种情况和它们之间的相互影响以及为什么说最终可能是个好消息。Whenwetalkaboutpowertransition,weoftentalkabouttheriseofAsia.Itreallyshouldbecalledtherecovery,orreturn,ofAsia.Ifwelookedattheworldin1800,you'dfindthatmorethanhalfoftheworld'speoplelivedinAsiaandtheymademorethanhalftheworld'sproduct.Nowfastforwardto1900:halftheworld'speople--morethanhalf--stillliveinAsia,butthey'remakingonlyafifthoftheworld'sproduct.Whathappened?TheIndustrialRevolution,whichmeantthatallofasudden,EuropeandAmericabecamethedominantcenteroftheworld.Whatwe'regoingtoseeinthe21stcenturyisAsiagraduallyreturningtobeingmorethanhalfoftheworld'spopulationandmorethanhalfoftheworld'sproduct.That'simportant,andit'sanimportantshift.ButletmetellyoualittlebitabouttheothershiftthatI'mtalkingabout,whichispowerdiffusion.说到权利的转移，我们经常会提起亚洲的崛起。确切地说应该称作亚洲的复兴或者亚洲的回归。回顾19世纪的世界，你会发现世界上一半以上的人口都居住在亚洲而且他们生产的产品占了世界总量的一半以上。现在我们来看20世纪，世界上一般的人口——超过一半——仍然在亚洲居住，但是他们的生产总值进占全球的五分之一。这是为什么呢？工业革命，也就是说突然之间，欧洲和美国成为主导世界的中心。而到了21世纪，我们看到的是亚洲将重新回到占世界一半以上人口和生产总值的位置。这很重要，而且是一次重大的权利转移。但是接下来我要和你们探讨一下刚才提到的另外一种转移，那就是权利分散。Tounderstandpowerdiffusionputthisinyourmind:computingandcommunicationscostshavefallenathousandfoldbetween1970andthebeginningofthiscentury.Nowthat'sabig,abstractnumber,buttomakeitmorereal,ifthepriceofanautomobilehadfallenasrapidlyasthepriceofcomputingpower,youcouldbuyacartodayforfivedollars.Nowwhenthepriceofanytechnologydeclinesthatdramatically,thebarrierstoentrygodown;anybodycanplayinthegame.Soin1970,ifyouwantedtocommunicatefromOxfordtoJohannesburgtoNewDelhitoBrasiliaandanywheresimultaneously,youcoulddoit,thetechnologywasthere.Buttobeabletodoit,youhadtobeveryrich--agovernment,amultinationalcorporation,maybetheCatholicChurch--butyouhadtobeprettywealthy.Now,anybodyhasthatcapacity,whichpreviouslywasrestrictedbypricejusttoafewactors,iftheyhavethepriceofentryintoaninternetcafe--thelasttimeIlooked,itwassomethinglikeapoundanhour--andifyouhaveSkype,it'sfree.Socapabilitiesthatwereoncerestrictedarenowavailabletoeveryone.要理解权利分散就要明白一点：计算和交流的成本已经降到原来的千分之几从1970年到本世纪初。这个数字很大，很抽象，但是具体来说，如果汽车价格的降幅和计算机的降幅一样，那么今天你只花五美元，就可以买辆车。那么如果所有的技术价格都以这个幅度下跌，获得这一技术的门槛就会降低；人人都可...