计量经济学(CPI研究)VIP免费

第1页共16页编号：时间：2021年x月x日书山有路勤为径，学海无涯苦作舟页码：第1页共16页计量经济学课程论文——消费者价格指数（CPI）相关因素的实证研究2011年5月AbstractAbstract:TheoverheatingofChineseeconomystartingfrom2007isactuallyaforewarningofinflation.While2008hadseentheglobalfinancialcrisis,chinaseemstostandonthefeetduringthisrecession,keepinguptherapidgrowth.However,afterthecrisis,especiallyaftercarryingoutthe“4000billion”investmentpolicyinJune,2009,thegovernmenthadtoacceptthetruththatchinawasfacingaseverepressureofinflation.From2010,theinflationwasbecomingmoreandmoreserious,attractingmoreandmoreattention,andthegovernmentalsobegantoconcentrateoncontrollingthedomesticinflation.However,thereisnotaunanimousopinionaboutthereasonsthatcausedinflation.Sincetheunderstandingoffactorsresultingintheinflationplaysasignificantroleinestablishingaproperpolicyaimedatsuppressinginflation,itisverynecessarytoconductanempiricalstudyonvariedfactorscontributingtoinflation.Byapplyingthemethodsofeconometrics,thisarticleanalyzedthreefactors:moneysupply,thecreditquotaandthepriceofrawmaterial.Fromtheresultofempiricalstudy,wefoundoutthatthemainfactorscausinginflationaretheunbalancingincreaseinmoneysupply.Besides,theblindexpansionofcreditquotahasledtoamplificationinthemoneymultiplier,alsoaccountingfortheinflation.What’smore,theincreaseincommodityprice,especiallyinagricultureproducts,isanimportantfactorofinflation.Keyword:CPIMoneySupplyCreditQuotaCorporateGoodsPrice第2页共16页第1页共16页编号：时间：2021年x月x日书山有路勤为径，学海无涯苦作舟页码：第2页共16页IndexEconometricModelStructuralForm目录Abstract....................................................................................................................................2【引言】..................................................................................................................................4一．问题的提出...............................................................................................................4二．模型设定与数据处理...............................................................................................5（一）理论依据..................................................................................................................5（二）模型设定..................................................................................................................6（三）数据收集..................................................................................................................7三．模型的估计与调整...................................................................................................8（一）CPI对货币供应量的回归.........................................................................................8（二）CPI对信贷规模的回归...........................................................................................11（三）CPI对农产品价格指数、矿产品价格指数、煤油电价格指数的回归................12四．本文的结论及政策建议.........................................................................................14【参考文献】........................................................................................................................15第3页共16页第2页共16页编号：时间：2021年x月x日书山有路勤为径，学海无涯苦作舟页码：第3页共16页【引言】基于基本的经济理论和计量经济学知识，本...