本科学生毕业论文道路交通事故组合预测研究系部名称：汽车工程系专业班级：交通工程B05-15班学生姓名：指导教师：宋成举职称：助教黑龙江工程学院二○○九年六月TheGraduationThesisforBachelor'sDegreeStudyontheCombinedForecastingModelofRoadTrafficAccidentsCandidate：ZhangWenchaoSpecialty：TrafficEngineeringClass：B05-15Supervisor：Assistant.SongChengjuHeilongjiangInstituteofTechnology2009-06·Harbin黑龙江工程学院本科生毕业论文摘要道路交通事故预测是道路交通安全研究的一项重要内容，预测的目的是为了掌握交通事故的未来发展状况，对交通安全措施的可行性和实施效果进行合理评价，有效地控制各影响因素，以达到减少交通事故的目的。本文首先介绍了我国道路交通安全的现状和交通事故的特点，统计了1973—2008年的我国道路交通事故各项指标（见表A1），包括事故次数、死亡人数、受伤人数、经济损失总数、机动车保有量、公路总是里程数等指标。其次，介绍了当前常用的几种交通事故预测方法，重点对灰色预测模型、指数平滑法及回归分析法进行了分析。然后，应用这三种预测模型分别对事故次数、死亡人数、经济损失总数进行预测，并进行预测结果评价。最后，采用组合预测原理，利用己有的事故数据构建组合预测模型，通过历史数据进行拟合，验证该模型是有效可行的。关键词：道路交通事故；预测；灰色预测模型；指数平滑法；回归分析法；组合预测模型I黑龙江工程学院本科生毕业论文ABSTRACTTheroadaccidentsforecastingisoneoftheimportantcontentoftheresearchoftrafficsafety.Thepurposeofroadaccidentsforecastingistoanalyzethetendencyofroadaccidentsunderexistingroadtrafficconditions,evaluatethefeasibilityandpracticaleffectivenessoftrafficsafetymeasures,controlthefactorsaffectingroadaccidents,andreducethetrafficaccidents.Firstly，thisthesisintroducesthepresentsituationofChineseroadtrafficsafetyandthetrafficaccidentscharacteristics,andthestatisticaldataofChineseroadtrafficaccidentseachindexfrom1973to2008(TableA1),includingthenumberofdeathsandinjuries,thetotalnumberofeconomiclosses,thetotalnumberofvehicles,thetotalmileageofhighwayandsoon.Secondly,thisthesisintroducesseveralforecastingmodelsofroadaccidents,itanalyzedthegreyforecastingmodel,exponentialsmoothingandregressionanalysismethod.Then,Ipredictthenumberofaccidents,thenumberofdeathsandinjuries,thetotalnumberofeconomiclossesbyusingthreeforecastingmodels,andassessingtheforecastingresults.Finally,byusingtheprincipleofcombinedforecasting,ithavesomeaccidentdatatoconstructacombinedforecastingmodel,throughthehistoricaldatafitting,validatethemodeliseffectiveandfeasible.Keywords:RoadAccidents；Forecast；GreyForecastingModel；ExponentialSmoothing；RegressionAnalysis；CombinedForecastingModelII黑龙江工程学院本科生毕业论文III黑龙江工程学院本科生毕业论文目录摘要........................................................................................................................................IAbstract...............................................................................................................................II第1章绪论.........................................................................................................................11.1概述............................................................................................................................11.2研究背景....................................................................................................................11.2.1我国道路交通安全现状..................................................................................21.2.2我国道路...
