经济学人杂志双语阅读：Dismalscience沉闷的科学PaulKrugman'sLondonlectures保罗克鲁格曼伦敦演讲Dismalscience沉闷的科学(注1)Jun11th2009FromTheEconomistprinteditionTheNobellaureatespeaksonthecrisisintheeconomyandineconomics诺贝尔奖得主就经济危机和经济学问题发表演讲THELondonSchoolofEconomicswasoncesopopularamongyoungAmericanscholarsthatBritishstudentsusedtojokethatLSEstoodfor“Let'sSeeEurope”.Adistinguishedsightseer,PaulKrugman,returnedtotheLSEonJune8thtogivetheannualLionelRobbinsmemoriallectures.MrKrugman,whogavetheRobbinslectures21yearsago,triedtoanswertwobigquestionsinthecourseofhisthreetalks.Whydideconomistsnotforeseecalamity?Andhowwilltheworldeconomyclimboutofrecession?伦敦经济学院曾经在美国青年学者中是如此的受欢迎，以至于英国学生曾笑称其为欧洲的象征。六月八日，令人尊敬的客人-保罗克鲁格曼先生，回到伦敦经济学院为一年一度的莱昂内尔罗宾斯纪念典礼做演将。克鲁格曼先生曾在二十一年前的罗宾斯纪念典礼上发表过演说，在当时的三场演讲中，他试图解说两大问题，即“为什么经济学家不对灾难进行预测？”和“世界经济如何走出衰退？”Theimmediatecauseofthecrisis,“themotherofallglobalhousingbubbles”,wasspottedbymanyeconomists.Thathousepriceshadrisentoofarwasobvious,evenifpolicymakershadseemedlesssure.Thesurprisewasthattheburstingofthebubblewouldbesodamaging.“Ihadnoideaitwouldendsobadly,”saidMrKrugman.许多经济学家认为，引发危机的的直接原因是“全球房地产泡沫之母”。很明显，住房价格已经涨得太高了，虽然决策者们对此看上去并不是很肯定。令人吃惊的是泡沫的破灭竟然会具有如此破坏性。“我不曾想到它会产生如此糟糕的结果，”克鲁格曼先生说。Onebigblindspotwasthefinancialsystem.Themistakewastothink“abankhadtolooklikesomethingJimmyStewartcouldrun”,withrowsoftellerstakingdepositsinamarble-frontedbuilding.Infactabankisanythingthatusesshort-termborrowingtofinancelong-termassetsthatarehardtosellatapush.Theshadowbankingsystemwasasimportanttotheeconomyastheordinarykind,butwasfarmorevulnerable.Itscollapsewasthemodernre-runofthebankfailuresofthe1930s,saidMrKrugman.金融系统是一个大盲点。人们所犯的错误是认为“银行看上去就像是吉米·史都华(注2)能够掌控一样”，出纳员在大理石建筑中排队领取保证金。(注3)而事实上银行是任何通过短期借款来进行长期融资的机构，很难一下子卖出所有金融品。影子银行体系对于经济来说与普通商业银行体系同样重要，但却脆弱的多。这一体系的崩溃其实是上世纪三十年代中的银行倒闭在现代的重演罢了，克鲁格曼先生说。Theexcessborrowingthatdidforshadowbanksthreatensconsumers,too.Theyarescramblingtosavemoreashousepricesplunge.Theirmortgagedebtsloomlargerbecauseofvanishinginflation.Thisurgetoshoreupwealthisself-defeatinginaggregate,asitcurbsspendingandincomes.Italsorendersconventionalmonetarypolicyimpotent,astheinterestratethatpreventstoomuchsavingisbelowzero.影子银行(注4)过度借款也造成了消费恐慌。由于房价的暴跌，消费者们争着将更多的钱放进银行。通货膨胀的消失使他们的抵押债务所面临的形势变得相当严峻。这种强烈的财富保值意识宏观加总后反而弄巧成拙，因为这抑制了支出和收入。它也使得传统的货币政策变得无能为力，因为为了阻止过多的储蓄，利率已经为负了。Thatcreatesaroleforfiscalpolicy.Ifzerointerestratescannotgetconsumerstospend,thengovernmentsmustspendinstead.Thatremedycomesfromeconomicssothedisciplineisnotwithoutmerit.Thetroubleis,“theanalysiswe'reusingisdecadesold”.ItdatesbacktoKeynes,oneofthefeweconomistswhosereputationhasbeenburnishedbythecrisis.(AnotherisHymanMinsky,whosemaininsightwasthatstabilityleadstotoomuchdebt,andth...
