Chapter2AChangedGlobalReality世界经济格局新变化Saythisfortheyoungcentury:weliveininterestingtimes.Notquite21⁄2yearsago,theworldeconomytippedintothemostseveredownturnsincetheGreatDepressioninthe1930s.Worldtradeslowedsharply.Unemploymentlinesgrewlonger,especiallyintheoldindustrialeconomies.Financialinstitutionsthathadseemedassolidasgranitedisappearedasiftheywerenomoresubstantialthanabunchofflowersinthehandsofanold-stylemagician.对于新世纪,我们得这样说:我们生活在一个有趣的时代。差不多两年半之前,世界经济陷入了20世纪30年代经济大萧条时期以来最惨重的低迷状态。世界贸易进程大幅放缓。失业队伍也越来越快,这在旧工业经济体系表现尤为突出。原来坚如磐石的金融机构也消失了,似乎还不如老套的魔术师变的花束看起来真实。Giventhatthescaleofthedownturnwassoepochal,itshouldnotbesurprisingthatthenatureoftherecoverywouldlikewisebethestuffofhistory.Andithasbeen.AstheymaketheirwaytoDavosfortheannualmeetingoftheWorldEconomicForum(WEF)byhelicopter,bus,carortrain(whichistherightwaytodoit),themembersoftheglobaleconomicandpoliticalelitewillfindthemselvescomingtotermswithsomethingtheyhaveneverknownbefore.考虑到经济衰退幅度如此的跨时代,经济复苏进程会很慢也是理所当然的,对此我们不应该感到吃惊。事实也正如我们所料,复苏进程确实很慢。全球经济政治精英乘直升飞机、大巴、小汽车或是火车前往达沃斯参加一年一度的世界经济论坛会议,此次会议上,全球经济政治精英会发现自己开始接受一些闻所未闻的事情。Thenewrealitycanbeexpressedlikethis.Formorethan200years,sincetheIndustrialRevolution,theworldhasseentwoeconomies.Onehasdominatedtechnologicalinnovationandtradeandamassedgreatwealth.Thesecond—muchofitpoliticallyunderthethumbofthefirst—hasremainedpoorandtechnologicallydependent.Thisdivideremainsstubbornlyreal.Therichworld—theU.S.,Canada,WesternEurope,Australia,NewZealand,JapanandthefouroriginalAsiandragons—accountsforonly16%oftotalworldpopulationbutnearly70%ofworldoutput.当今的情况是这样的。自工业革命以来的二百多年间,世界出现了两大经济体。一个支配着技术创新和贸易,累积了大量财富。另一个在政治上主要受前者的控制,在经济上一直处于贫穷状态并且在技术上存在依赖性。两者的鸿亘古存在。发达国家----美国、加拿大、西欧、澳大利亚、新西兰、日本及亚洲四小龙,以世界总人口的16%输出着世界将近70%的产品。Butchangeisuponus.Thedevelopedworldofthehavesisstrugglingtorestartgrowthandpreservewelfarestates,whiletheworldoftheoncehave-notshassurgedoutofthedownturn.BigemergingeconomieslikeChinaandIndiahavediscoverednewsourcesofdomesticdemand.PartsofAfricaareattractingrealinterestfrominvestors.Alltold,thestrengthofthedevelopingworldhassupportedtheglobaleconomy.TheWorldBankestimatesthateconomicgrowthinlow-andmiddle-incomecountriescontributedalmosthalfofworldgrowth(46%)in2010.世界形势正发生着变化。在发达国家的富人们努力重新刺激经济增长并维持社会福利的时候,曾经的穷人们却已经摆脱了经济困境。像中国和印度这样大的新兴经济体已经找到了国内需求的新来源。非洲的部分地区也正吸引着对他们真正感兴趣的投资者。总之,发展中国家的力量撑起了世界经济。据世界银行估计,2010年,中低收入国家的经济增长约占世界经济增长的一半(46%)。ASighofRelief经济回暖,令人欣慰Inthelongterm,thisisnothingbutgoodnews.Asbillionsofpoorpeoplebecomemoreprosperous,theywillbeabletoaffordthecomfortstheircounterpartsintherichworldhavelongconsideredthenormalappurtenancesoflife.Butbeforewecelebrateaneweconomicorder,deepdivisionsbothbetweenandwithinnationshavetobeovercome.Otherwise,theworldcouldyettipbac...